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VSCLAB launched the COVID-19 pandemic projection

We  recently developed a new real-time differential virus transmission model, which can give more accurate and robust short-term predictions of COVID-19 transmitted infectious disease with benefits for near-term projection. The new model is based on well-accepted enhanced Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) virus transmission model. But as the parameters of the improved SEIR models are trained by short history window data for accurate trend prediction, our differential epidemic model can give better prediction over short future (5-10 days) and near term projection (one or two months) under the same diseases mitigation policies, people social behaviors, business activity level. We also compared our projected results with well-watched IHME projection from University of Washington. Currently we show the our projection results for US, California, New York and Riverside county. Our model shows that the total infected case in US may reach to 1.1 million, death cases will reach to about 90K. The medical resource peak be around of beginning of May, which is also the time for the largest currently infected cases). The pandemic situation of US will may run well over into summer of 2020. We will add more projections for different regions and countries soon. Please stay tuned.